AUTOMATED VEHICLES: Transportation report estimates 7 million drivers will shift to AVs in three U.S. cities

March 13, 2017

Three transportation companies are offering six policy solutions for city leaders

A study by transportation, economics and urban planning experts has found that ridesharing and ridesourcing services using autonomous vehicles (AV) could shift millions of drivers away from personal cars in major U.S. cities.

“Driverless Future: A Policy Roadmap for City Leaders,” the study prepared by Arcadis, HR&A Advisors and Sam Schwartz Consulting, shows that the move to ridesharing and ridesourcing services that don’t have a driver could cause a shift of up to 60% (3.6 million cars) from traditional to autonomous vehicles in the New York metro area alone over the next 15-20 years.

The Los Angeles metro area could see a shift of up to 44% (2.2 million cars) and the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area could see a shift of up to 31% (nearly 1 million cars).

These shifts of nearly 7 million drivers to autonomous vehicles across three diverse metro areas illustrate how cities across the U.S. could be greatly impacted and reveals the significant effect of driverless services contemplated by companies such as Uber and Lyft.

To help cities prepare for such profound changes in daily life, Arcadis, HR&A Advisors and Sam Schwartz Consulting are offering a policy road map for complex issues related to autonomous vehicles and their potential impact on equity, public transit, parking, land use, and real estate development. The full report can be found here

To prepare for this driverless future, the report identifies six priorities for city leaders: leveraging technology to enhance mobility; prioritizing and modernizing public transit; implementing dynamic pricing; planning for mixed-use, car-light neighborhoods; encouraging adaptable parking; and promoting equitable access to new jobs and services.