Someone needs to bag this approach

Jan. 21, 2003
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People don't price loaves of bread for fun anymore. I remember back in the early '80s the rate of inflation was a laughing topic of conversation. Many wondered how much a trip to the grocery store would cost in 20 years, and it usually calculated into the thousands. Price increases, however, are no longer a part of the sense of humor. Heck, they're ignored even when it's time to be serious.

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People don't price loaves of bread for fun anymore. I remember back in the early '80s the rate of inflation was a laughing topic of conversation. Many wondered how much a trip to the grocery store would cost in 20 years, and it usually calculated into the thousands. Price increases, however, are no longer a part of the sense of humor. Heck, they're ignored even when it's time to be serious.

According to an audit issued by the U.S. Department of Transportation's inspector general, the cost to improve the Springfield Interchange in Virginia--The Mixing Bowl--is fast approaching $1 billion. Back in 1994, the state's Commonwealth Transportation Board approved a $241 million plan. It was still a steep price back then, but commuters were anxious for the project to spring into action. The Springfield Interchange is the deadliest and most confusing grid in Virginia, and the new Mixing Bowl was viewed by many as a healthy serving of good.

Since then, however, cost estimates have risen a portly 180% to the latest estimate of $676.5 million.

So what's the most shameful act behind this cheap mismanagement of funds? According to the U.S. DOT inspector general, VDOT failed to assume any increase in the cost of materials or labor for the life of the project between 1994 and 2001. This alone tacked an additional $44 million on the final project price.

The Mixing Bowl suffered hikes in four other major areas:

* Feeling the pressure from Fairfax County officials, VDOT added more ramps from the interchange to Franconia and Old Keene Mille roads. The project expanded to include the widening of Loisdale Road and Commerce Street, improvements officials believed would help traffic flow through downtown Springfield. The maneuver called for an additional $30 million;

* The public basically decided more noise walls were needed, and more retaining walls were installed to accommodate extra work on utilities. The package cost $54.3 million, which included the replacement of bridges engineers thought could simply be redecked;

* Fairfax County supervisors pushed for broader efforts to ease congestion during construction. This resulted in an increased presence by Virginia State Police, expanded local bus service and improved roads in the area. This called for another $31.2 million; and

* Widening Franconia Road took additional land from Lee High School, and the Fairfax County School Board demanded compensation. VDOT agreed to replace fields, tennis courts and a press box for $500,000.

Ignoring the rate of inflation for eight years has really left The Mixing Bowl vulnerable to a serious licking from critics. I believe this was another case of low-balling. The public would have taken a knife to any proposal asking for $600 million back in 1994. Still, keeping predicted costs low for the sake of approval is a bad practice certain people in this industry continue to follow. If you're upfront with people they are more willing to accept a grandiose figure. It may take a little while, but constant PR on the benefits of a massive road project would diminish the initial objection. However, when you present a number then continually tack on more it's only natural for people to feel betrayed. For some obscure reason those on planning commissions feel it is best to put a cover on the real deal. In the meantime, this industry is looking more and more like an addicted purse-snatcher.

Cost overruns have been happening since the dawn of public infrastructure. According to a study conducted by Danish Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg, 258 projects built between 1910 and 1998 in the U.S. and Europe underestimated final costs by an average of 28%.

Now I know there are legitimate unexpected costs involved with every project. Widening streets and adding more noise walls due to public demand are sometimes tough to predict. But inflation is a given in this country. Dismissing it is inexcusable. VDOT has a rate installed now--a soft 3%--so you can expect a total cost of $1 billion, maybe more. The checkout counter will remain open.

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