The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its winter snapshot estimate of the revenue and balance expectations for the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) on Jan. 23. CBO estimates that the HTF balance will fall $1.3 billion short of what is necessary to meet projected obligations for fiscal year 2009.

This estimate is an improvement over the previous snapshot, released in August 2007, which estimated a shortfall of $4.3 billion. CBO reports that outlay estimates were lowered significantly for the next several years, based on historical spending under SAFETEA-LU and information the office has received from the states about projected spending.

While the estimate is an improvement, federal budget rules would still require a cut in outlays of approximately $5 billon in FY 2009 if these numbers do not improve. The shifting estimate shows that the numbers are fluid, and the projected shortfall could be higher when the next estimate is released.

The Office of Management and Budget will release its estimate soon, and the OMB estimate will be used by the administration to make its budget request in February for FY 2009 spending.