In 1968, the Apollo 7 and Apollo 8 space flights, each with three astronauts aboard, successfully orbited the moon and splashed down safely in the Pacific. Some of the scientists and engineers at NASA who worked on the Apollo missions (James Costantino, first president of ITS America, for one) would later adapt air and space technology to surface transportation, laying the foundations for what became known as intelligent transportation systems, or ITS. That also was the year the U.S. population reached 200 million, of which 107 million were licensed drivers.
Fast forward to 2006. The U.S. population has passed 300 million, with 199 million licensed drivers. In those intervening years, the number of vehicle-miles driven nearly tripled. By 2043, according to estimates by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, vehicle-miles traveled will leap by 135%, but highway capacity will grow just 9%, with the average motorist spending 160 hours a year—four eight-hour-day work weeks—sitting in traffic tie-ups.
Facing traffic conditions like that, the raison d’etre for ITS—to make surface transportation more efficient, safer and more economical through the use of electronic, computer and communications technologies—will be severely tested in coming years. The ITS industry has become a muscular teenager, measured by the age of ITS America anyway.
The industry has developed a wide range of technology providers, including everything from cell phones, personal digital assistants (PDAs), vehicle navigation systems and electronic toll collection systems to highway traffic monitoring and reporting networks.
Neil Schuster, who has been ITS America president since October 2001, cites “the proliferation of ITS products and services,” noting that “there are more ITS solutions (to traffic problems) today than ever before.”
For the future, Schuster said: “On the short-term horizon, we want to take all the technologies, like iPods, cell phones and traffic management centers, and integrate them. That’s the key to the future of ITS.”
And it is all in the context of meeting future transportation needs less with budget-straining, space-eating new lanes of concrete and asphalt, and more with electronic methods of monitoring and controlling traffic. Two million vehicles will be equipped with OnStar this model year, compared with 1.2 million in 2005, a 41% increase. Each month in the U.S. and Canada, OnStar assists in about 11,400 emergencies, unlocks 50,000 doors and locates 450 stolen vehicles.
Where’s the growth chart?
One problem that deters the entry of more companies into ITS is that there is no reliable gauge of the size, financial health and market potential of the industry. It is a mixture of large companies devoting a small part of their business to ITS, some older ITS companies doing well financially and newer ones with mixed financial success themselves. There are reportedly some efforts to encourage Mary Peters, the new secretary of transportation, who has some experience in the ITS field, to throw more weight in favor of ITS and to get the Federal Highway Administration to work with the private sector in coming up with an ITS market analysis. Meaningful market statistics are necessary, a House staffer who works with the 50-member ITS Caucus in the House, said. “You need to prove that what you’re peddling is actually working.”
Raul Catangui, a former ITS America legislative director, cited lack of industry-wide market data as one reason why ITS “has not matured to where it ought to be. Until you find out the numbers, you don’t have a level of maturity.” Catangui is now president and CEO of Synergy Alliances, an ITS consulting firm, and vice president of Crossroads Traveler Information Systems, Valley Springs, Calif.
One other sign of immaturity, said Bob Andosca, Crossroads’ CEO, is a lack of government standards, which are common to more established industries. “I’d like to say that we’ve taken off like a rocket with ITS, but it’s slow,” he said. “We’ve got money, but we don’t know how to use it. It may take years to get [standards] through to the DOT.”
Meanwhile, to get a handle on how ITS is doing as a money maker, ITS America has launched a series of reports called ITS Market Data & Forecast: Infrastructure ITS. Only the first one has come out, which covers infrastructure by state. “It shows healthy growth rates,” Schuster said, “as little as 10% and as high as 30%, using compound growth rates.”
Public acceptance of intelligent transportation is growing, with all deliberate speed, enhanced by a rapid growth in 5-1-1-based and other traffic-trouble reporting systems and motorist aids like General Motors Corp.’s OnStar system. But public acceptance still has a long way to go.
The public recognizes ITS approaches as “just a tool” for making travel safer, easier and faster, said Phil Tarnoff, director of the Center for Advanced Transportation Technology at the University of Maryland. “People don’t talk as much about what ITS is and how to improve operations.” Instead, they focus on specific systems or functions, such as integrating vehicle and roadway safety-control devices or weather reporting, he said. “We’re not talking about toys anymore,” he added, and traffic engineers need to think more about systems concepts.
To gauge awareness of ITS solutions, the U.S. DOT conducted a series of 20 focus groups in 2006. The research revealed that the overall familiarity of ITS as a program is “relatively low” among the traveling public, commercial vehicle operators, state and local departments of transportation, state legislators and others. However, “the levels of awareness of individual elements of the program, such as 5-1-1 traveler information, coordinated signal systems, electronic toll systems, transit fare cards, ‘next bus’ arrival signs and roadside variable message signs was quite high,” said Jeff Paniati, FHWA’s associate administrator for operations.
“We’ve been struggling for years to give the public something that motorists can use. We’ve reached that point, and we can’t go back,” added Valerie Briggs, program manager for transportation operations at the American Association of State Highway & Transportation Officials.
Government support for ITS continues to increase, however slowly, with skeptics still abundant as to just how significant the industry will really become. Earmarked congressional funding is now on firm footing; ITS also now has a shot at the core funds of highway programs, but must compete with big-money project funding to get any of that general financing. Strong support for ITS comes from the federal House, with vigorous backing from a 50-member ITS Caucus, with somewhat less support in the Senate, where no such caucus exists.
The Democratic party’s takeover of Congress is expected to give ITS increased backing on Capitol Hill, which will become manifest as lawmakers begin, in a year or so, to develop a new multiyear highway transportation law to succeed the $286.4 billion Safe, Accountable, Flexible and Efficient Transportation Equity Act—A Legacy for Users, or SAFETEA-LU, which was enacted last year after two years of extensions of its predecessor, and which itself expires Sept. 30, 2009. The law provides an estimated $150 to $200 million or more annually through FY 2009, said Nelson Garcia, ITS America’s director of government relations. It also directs the secretary of transportation to establish a program to provide in all states the ability to monitor in real time the traffic and travel conditions of the major highways in the U.S.
Working for and against
Here is a rundown on the various aspects of ITS’ potential and problems:
Systems deployment: The Federal Highway Administration’s ITS Deployment Statistics Database shows 63 of the 75 largest metropolitan areas with a basic level of infrastructure deployment in each of five traffic management categories. Variable messaging is used by 66 of 78 metropolitan areas on freeways, but only a few estimate travel times to specified points. As of 2004, 93 of 147 freeway management agencies had a traffic management center (TMC). Schuster asked that while it is hard to document the precise amount of traffic congestion relief TMCs have provided, “how much worse would it be without it? And it certainly would be worse.”
Between 1997 and 2005, coverage of real-time traffic data collection technologies rose from 16% of all freeway miles to 38%, while ramps controlled by ramp meters reached 16%, miles under lane control were 9%, those by variable message signs reached 46% and miles covered by highway advisory radio increased to 22%.
In May 2006, the U.S. DOT announced a new national strategy to reduce highway congestion, with ITS to play “a central role,” Paniati said.
The cost picture: The ready availability of ITS technologies and the fact that the DOT continually evaluates their cost and benefit ratio fosters more deployment and lower costs, Schuster said. “Cost is coming down as you get economies of scale.” ITS America estimated in 1995 that $6 billion would be needed to implement ITS. How does the cost picture look today? “Now, cost is not a big issue,” Schuster said, citing the cost of congestion and accidents as $300 billion a year. He added, “ITS will be a small price tag compared to new roads, and are a reasonable alternative.”
A recent FHWA technical report concluded that through 2005, the capital cost for deploying ITS infrastructure elements in the 75 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. so far was $15.5 billion, with a remaining cost/investment of $28.7 billion.
Technology advances: New ITS technologies being developed or put into use are announced, explored, promoted or refined frequently. One of the foremost is the vehicle infrastructure integration (VII) initiative, and ITS America took its VII Technology Showcase to Detroit last October for the Society of Automotive Engineers Convergence 2006. A core group of companies—Econolite, Technocom, Raytheon, Connexis and TS/Communications—joined General Motors and the Michigan DOT in demonstrating vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure collision-avoidance technologies in a parking lot near Cobo Center.
Integration and more extensive use of new technologies is getting more attention. ITS interests, private and public, are working on a “holistic” approach that ties port container security, emergency management and truck movement of goods out of a congested port using new all-inclusive TMCs and satellite-based location technology. GeoDecisions has developed such an approach, and “what you’re seeing is the integration of geospatial information systems and ITS beyond typical ITS,” said Catangui.
Another valuable ITS technology is parking information. Schuster noted the frustration motorists feel when they drive to a public parking lot, only to find the lot full. Parking space availability information is needed “while you are in motion,” he said. “San Francisco has cut congestion and pollution by giving motorists travel times by mode and telling you if parking is available at the Oakland Rockridge Bay Area Rapid Transit District or if the lot is full.” And a pilot project is “coming down the road,” which will allow motorists to book a parking space electronically.
Homeland security: “Homeland security concerns are similar to ITS concerns,” Schuster said. “For example, an overturned Hazmat truck is still a safety problem,” whether caused by a terrorist or not. “We’ve been reaching out to the Department of Homeland Security to show them what we can do,” he said, and predicted, “We’ll see more ITS” in homeland security. Technology has been developed to automatically turn all lanes in a city hit by a terrorist attack, plant explosion or natural disaster into outbound lanes, which would have been of high value in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005.
Vehicle tracking: The Global Positioning Systems as a way to manage fleets was not around 16 years ago, and there were no cell phones to use in tracking. Now, location-based information is not only helpful in fleet management, but also in personal travel—for instance, to help find a restaurant, a hotel, a gas station, office building or the nearest hospital.
Government agencies spend more than $1 billion a year, by some estimates, on tracking traffic. In Atlanta, two companies—IntelliOne and AirSage—are tracking cell phone signals in cars to see how fast they are moving, if at all, and can then let motorists know which roads are clogged. Media outlets can buy this information on traffic conditions and pass it along to drivers. IntelliOne plans to cover 40 more markets by November 2007. AirSage has partnered with Sprint Nextel in four contracts with state transit departments and, with the Georgia DOT, will extend coverage between Atlanta and Macon.
But privacy advocates in Atlanta have expressed concern about being tracked. Schuster said the VII program directly addresses the privacy issue by telling consumers, “Here are the rules on how we will use the data.” The VII drafted privacy principles and took them to various groups like the American Civil Liberties Union. “The ACLU said, ‘You’re on the right track,’” Schuster said, “so it’s a start.”
Telematics: In-vehicle systems, like GM’s OnStar, find growing use, but the growth is measured. They offer navigation aids, traffic information, operator-provided or 9-1-1-type emergency help, among other services. A few years ago, GM predicted that in the early 21st century half of all vehicles would be equipped with this kind of technology.
5-1-1 traveler information: The 5-1-1 telephone number for traveler information has spread across the country (only Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii and West Virginia lack 5-1-1 service), with each region of the country having its own priority—snowstorm reports, traffic tie-ups or destination tips, for example. The 5-1-1 Deployment Coalition of public agencies and private groups reported recently that more than 58 million calls nationwide had been made on 5-1-1 since its 2001 inception. In the month of August 2006, 1,439,826 calls were reported, a 9.7% increase over August 2005.
The number is available to 35% of the American population, more than 100 million people, and the coalition’s goal is nationwide coverage by 2010, buttressed by SAFETEA-LU’s similar deadline. In 2005, statewide service was launched in Idaho and Rhode Island, and expanded statewide in Florida and Virginia.
In a study of Virginia’s 5-1-1 system, 90% of respondents who had used it found it useful.
Legislative outlook: A core group of ITS backers includes Rep. James Oberstar (D-Minn.), incoming chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, “a huge supporter of ITS,” Garcia said, and recipient of ITS America’s “Friends of ITS.” Either Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), who was the committee’s chairman, or Thomas Petri (R-Wis.), will be the T & I panel’s ranking minority member, and both are strong ITS supporters. The Subcommittee on Highways, Transit and Pipelines will be chaired by Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), another ITS supporter. The new speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), is said to be another ITS backer, coming from the traffic-congested San Francisco area and an ally of Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), who co-chairs the ITS Caucus with Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).
But the education of members of Congress and their staffs requires an ongoing effort, Garcia said, and “incoming members may not fully understand ITS.” He said that as new technologies come on the ITS scene, “we must restart the educational program.”
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